Risk analysis of human health from arsenic intake present in purified water in Zinapécuaro, Michoacán: A probabilistic approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37636/recit.v9n3e464Keywords:
Toxicity, Risk, ArsenicAbstract
Arsenic (As), a toxic element, occurs naturally in geothermal regions of Mexico. In the Zinapécuaro area, located in Michoacán, concentrations exceeding the health standard of 10 μg/L have been detected, particularly in groundwater and spring water. In this study, sampling was conducted at six different water refilling stations to determine the concentrations of inorganic arsenic present. The objective of this study is to assess the risk to human health, particularly among children—considered a highly vulnerable population—from the consumption of purified water in the city of Zinapécuaro, Michoacán. A quantitative approach from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was applied, which includes characterizing toxin concentrations, calculating exposure, and performing a probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Water samples were collected in consecutive months at the six selected businesses and analyzed by atomic absorption spectroscopy. The As levels obtained in the water samples ranged from 0.00034 to 0.03695 mg/L. The reference doses listed by the EPA were used to evaluate the point estimate of the hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk (CR) for ingestion, the results of which are shown below, respectively, with the measured data: M1(3.73,0.00014), M2(3.001, 0.00012), M3(4.45, 0.00017), M4(3.81, 0.00015), M5(1.56, 0.000058), M6(1.83, 0.000068). After using Monte Carlo simulation for the HQ values, the following 5% and 95% percentiles were obtained. M1(2.76, 4.7), M2(2.57, 3.45), M3(3.50, 5.34), M4(2.92, 4.70), M5(1.27, 1.87), M6(1.52, 2.14) and for the CR, they were M1(0.00010, 0.00018), M2(0.000095, 0.00018), M3 (0.00013, 0.00020), M4 (0.00010, 0.00018), M5 (0.000047, 0.000069), M6 (0.000057, 0.000079).
According to the HQ results, an intake greater than 1 indicates that there is a non-carcinogenic potential for illness due to water consumption at the evaluated sites, and according to the CR intake results, the carcinogenic risk at these sites is acceptable.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Alexis Calderón Herrera, Dr. Marco Antonio Martínez Cinco, Dr. José Leopoldo Mendoza Lagunas, Dra. Laura Nelly Rodríguez Cantú , Dra. María Mercedes Meza Montenegro, Dra. María del Mar Navarro Farfán, Jesús Ávila Guzmán
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